Model Releases
AIFS-TC: A simple correction competitive with the operational frontier for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting
arXiv:2608.09959v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: AI weather models are in the process of revolutionising weather forecasting. While these models have been shown to achieve superior performance to phy
arXiv:2608.09959v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: AI weather models are in the process of revolutionising weather forecasting. While these models have been shown to achieve superior performance to physics-based NWP in forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) tracks, they dramatically underestimate intensity. Here we present AIFS-TC, a simple correction to the AIFS-Single model that is competitive with the operational state-of-the-art for forecasting maximum wind speed and minimum central pressure at lead times of 12 h to seven days. This performance also holds for rapid intensification events. Notably, the entire system was autonomously designed and built by a large language model (Claude Fable 5) in a few hours, directed through a small number of natural-language prompts by a single domain scientist. That the operational frontier can be reached with an open-source AI forecast model (AIFS-Single) and relatively simple, cheap post-processing is significant for TC science, and points to agentic coding as a route to rapid exploration and progress in life-saving early-warning systems in other domains.
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Source: arXiv cs.LG | 2026-08-12