“If you want to know whether the AI bubble is bursting, there’s only one publicly traded company that will tell you: Oracle…” “Oracle has th…

“If you want to know whether the AI bubble is bursting, there’s only one publicly traded company that will tell you: Oracle…” “Oracle has the lowest credit rating. It also has the greatest debt load, even before the infrastructure buildout came into play…” “OpenAI… is by far the biggest customer represented in Oracle’s remaining performance obligations (RPOs), which represent how much money Oracle is slated to earn from its existing contracts. Of the 553 billion in RPOs that Oracle reported in its most recent earnings release, more than 300 billion is OpenAI” And OpenAI is facing severe headwinds. “What happens to Oracle if OpenAI shits the bed? One possibility is that it sacrifices its software stock premium and gets priced like a utility, … and fades in significance … It’s not impossible that [Oracle] goes bankrupt” And of course it’s not impossible that Ellison’s buddy in the White House might make the rest of us bail it out. Must read piece by @mslopatto @verge lays out why Oracle is is overextended, and why it might augur the deflation of an AI bubble. https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/920378/oracle-openai-datacenter-buildout

Source: Gary Marcus (X) | 2026-04-30