In early May, the best superforecasters predicted that, by the end of the year, the longest METR 80% task horizons would reach 3-4 hours. In…

In early May, the best superforecasters predicted that, by the end of the year, the longest METR 80% task horizons would reach 3-4 hours. In late May, Claude Mythos achieved that number. We also asked forecasters to predict the longest 80% success time horizon achieved by the end of 2026. All three groups had medians between 3 and 4 hours, up from a baseline of 1.5 hours at the time of survey launch. During our survey period, METR updated its benchmark to include…

Source: Ethan Mollick (X) | 2026-06-03