PolyBench: Benchmarking LLM Forecasting and Trading Capabilities on Live Prediction Market Data

arXiv:2604.14199v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting real-world events from live market signals demands systems that fuse qualitative news with quantitative order-book dynamics under strict temporal discipline -- a challenge existing benchmarks fail to capture. We present extbf{PolyBench}, a multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket that records point-in-time cross-sections of 38,666 binary prediction markets spanning 4,997 events, synchronously coupling each snapshot with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) state and a real-time news stream. Using PolyBench, we evaluate seven state-of-the-art Large Language Models -- spanning open- and closed-source families -- generating 36,165 predictions under identical, timestamp-locked market states collected between February 6 and 12, 2026. Our multidimensional framework assesses directional accuracy, our proposed Confidence-Weighted Return (CWR), Annualized Percentage Yield (APY), and Sharpe ratio via realistic order-book execution simulation. The results reveal a pronounced performance divergence: only two of seven models achieve positive financial returns -- MiMo-V2-Flash at extbf{17.6%} CWR and Gemini-3-Flash at 6.2% CWR -- while the remaining five incur losses despite uniformly high stated confidence. These findings highlight the gap between surface-level language fluency and genuine probabilistic reasoning under live market uncertainty, and establish PolyBench as a contamination-proof, financially-grounded evaluation standard for future LLM research. Our dataset and code available at nderline{href{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench}{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench}}.

Source: arXiv cs.LG | 2026-04-17