Variability Aware Recursive Neural Network (VARNN): A Residual-Memory Model for Capturing Temporal Deviation in Sequence Regression Modeling

arXiv:2510.08944v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Real-world time-series regression often involves non-stationarity, heteroscedasticity, and regime changes, under which recent prediction errors may contain structured information about local temporal mismatch between model predictions and observations. Learning how to represent and reuse these errors can therefore provide useful information for subsequent prediction. We introduce the Variability-Aware Recursive Neural Network (VARNN), a residual-aware architecture for supervised time-series regression that learns an explicit residual-memory state from recent prediction errors and uses it to condition subsequent predictions. Specifically, VARNN maps scalar prediction innovations into a learned nonlinear, vector-valued residual representation over a short context. Across nine datasets spanning energy, healthcare, and environmental domains, VARNN achieves lower test MSE than the compared static, lag-based, and sequence-model baselines. Targeted ablations further show that learned projected residual memory improves predictive accuracy over direct scalar residual feedback, supporting the benefit of a learned nonlinear representation of prediction deviations.

Source: arXiv cs.LG | 2026-10-02