Amortized Variational Inference of Latent Intensities from Replicated Point Patterns

arXiv:2610.16669v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian inference for latent point process intensities often relies on per-dataset sampling or optimization, making repeated inference computationally expensive. We propose a neural-network-based amortized variational framework that learns a reusable inference rule mapping a variable number of replicated point patterns to a distribution over their shared latent intensity. Trained from event times using the point process likelihood, the model learns an amortized inference rule without ground-truth intensity supervision. At test time, it performs inference of the latent distribution in a forward pass. On synthetic data, additional realizations improve intensity recovery and yield narrower credible intervals with broadly stable coverage. Our method is tested on bicycle-sharing data and achieves the highest mean held-out log likelihood among the evaluated methods while requiring substantially less inference time than the Log-Gaussian Cox Process baseline.

Source: arXiv cs.LG | 2026-10-14