🚨ASI/AGI is imminent fans don’t realize that they ALREADY lost the argument around Astra. My argument (spelled out in detail in my Substack…

🚨ASI/AGI is imminent fans don’t realize that they ALREADY lost the argument around Astra. My argument (spelled out in detail in my Substack today) was that Astra was unlikely to be the dramatic leap forward people were fantasizing about. In the last few hours, we have learned that Fable and Sol can do a bunch of the same stuff. That suggests that Astra is incremental, not a revolution. (OpenAI didn’t even include a control group! Nor any evidence on any tasks that don’t involve formal verification that Astra represents significant advances over earlier models.) OpenAI may even realize some of Astra’s limits that they didn’t discuss, inasmuch they don’t seem to want to call Astra GPT-6. (Wouldn’t they do so if it was truly a quantum across the board leap?) AGI will come someday, but pretending that every new model is something it is not is not hastening that moment.

Source: Gary Marcus (X) | 2026-08-03