Research
Calibrating Prediction Timeliness Through Multi-Objective Hyperparameter Optimization for Remaining Useful Life Prediction
arXiv:2610.01530v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In predictive maintenance, early and late RUL prediction errors carry asymmetric consequences, yet hyperparameter optimization typically targets a singl
arXiv:2610.01530v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In predictive maintenance, early and late RUL prediction errors carry asymmetric consequences, yet hyperparameter optimization typically targets a single accuracy metric that treats both directions equally. This study treats the optimization objective itself as a design variable. Five architectures (MLP, LSTM, XGBoost, TCN, and Transformer) are evaluated under three regimes: single-objective maximization of R^2, single-objective minimization of the NASA scoring function, and a multi-objective formulation that jointly optimizes both criteria. The multi-objective search employs NSGA-II with Entropy-CRITIC weighting for Pareto selection. Seventy-five model-dataset-strategy combinations are assessed on the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan and BackBlaze hard-disk drive benchmarks. On C-MAPSS, all strategies achieve comparable accuracy (R^2 approx 0.89), yet multi-objective optimization reduces directional imbalance by approximately 33%, improving calibration of early versus late predictions. Model rankings prove configuration-dependent, with simpler architectures frequently outperforming deeper temporal models. On BackBlaze, the objectives shift from complementary to conflicting, producing divergent Entropy-CRITIC weights and a substantial generalization gap (best R^2 approx 0.34). These results demonstrate that the optimization objective materially shapes prognostic behavior and that multi-objective search provides a practical mechanism for calibrating prediction timeliness in RUL modeling.
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Source: arXiv cs.LG | 2026-10-02