Safety
interesting (and completely opposed to @haider1’s take on the same graph) *the labs themselves* have only modestly changed their predictions…
interesting (and completely opposed to @haider1’s take on the same graph) *the labs themselves* have only modestly changed their predictions on AGI timelines over the last decade. note also that (on a
interesting (and completely opposed to @haider1’s take on the same graph) the labs themselves have only modestly changed their predictions on AGI timelines over the last decade. note also that (on average) academics are still predicting AGI after 2040. chatgpt launch was the inflection point LLMs haven't delivered AGI yet, but they have dramatically compressed the timeline, so now, instead of AGI being 40 years away, it seems perpetually 3-4 years away how can anyone still fail to see the exponential progress?
Related
- Why oh why do so many people take this man’s predictions seriously?
- The “AGI-is-near” community keeps committing the same logical fallacy over and over; I have seen it at least half a dozen times today alone.…
- interesting to listen to this years later. what held up? what changed?
Source: Gary Marcus (X) | 2026-08-05