POEM: Phase-Aware SO(2) Feature Rotation for Time Series Forecasting Under Periodicity Drift

arXiv:2608.03630v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep learning has advanced time series forecasting, but periodicity drift, in which cycle timing and phase vary over time, remains a challenging problem. Existing methods predominantly model these sequences on fixed time grids, suffering from a limited ability to accommodate phase-related variation. To address this limitation, we propose extbf{POEM}, a phase-aware forecasting framework based on latent feature rotation using the special orthogonal group in two dimensions, denoted by SO(2). POEM aims to reduce the phase-related variability by learning a phase-correction coordinate and applying an invertible SO(2)-based rotation to paired latent features. To extrapolate this correction coordinate, Directional Phase Increment Attention (DPIA) retrieves historical phase increments from similar temporal contexts and integrates them into future phase corrections. Experiments demonstrate that POEM achieves competitive performance, while qualitative visualizations suggest that the learned phase-aware transformation makes latent trajectories more regular.

Source: arXiv cs.LG | 2026-08-05