Remember my discussion with @dwarkesh_sp about revenue forecasts for Anthropic? He is basically projecting continuous exponential growth for…

Remember my discussion with @dwarkesh_sp about revenue forecasts for Anthropic? He is basically projecting continuous exponential growth for Anthropic’s revenue run rate; I have been saying it will flatten out because of Chinese models, price wars, and the end of tokenmaxxing. From the data below it looks like (tentatively, it’s a small sample to be sure) I might be right. A flattening may have begun. [Of course long term, profits are what really matters.] Anthropic Claude Code tracked ARR reached $15.12B for the week ending Aug. 10, representing 21.9% of Anthropic’s total tracked ARR. Latest tracked growth: +5.2% MoM. Full tracking update: https://blog.tickertrends.io/p/claude-code-vs-openai-codex-arr

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• this basically destroys the extrapolations that had Anthropic making two trillion dollars a year.
• You have Dwarkesh predicting Anthropic is going to make well over 100B in revenue this year. and then you have this chart.
• When you burn so much money you run out of options…

Source: Gary Marcus (X) | 2026-08-19