🦔Research firm New Constructs called Anthropic “the most ridiculous IPO of 2026.” Its report puts the company’s value as low as $144 billio…

🦔Research firm New Constructs called Anthropic “the most ridiculous IPO of 2026.” Its report puts the company’s value as low as 144 billion, about 93% under the roughly 2 trillion Anthropic is reportedly aiming for. By the firm’s math, the higher price would need a 10% profit margin starting now and held for ten years, plus revenue of 3.6 trillion a year by 2035. It estimates Anthropic’s operating margin last year at about minus 175%. My Take I’m mostly with New Constructs here. Revenue growth is the one piece Anthropic has shown, about 33 billion through September versus 4.6 billion in all of 2025, and on that test it’s close to where the bear case says it needs to be. I just can’t see the margins getting there. That kind of swing needs big customers to pay premium prices for years while cheaper models get better every few months, and Accenture already started capping how much Claude it pays for this month. Right now no one outside the company can put an exact number on it without full costs, me included. Still, that price asks buyers to pay up front for a decade of profits Anthropic has never shown (and the founders keep 50.1% of the votes, so outside shareholders get little say). My bet is the S-1 shows a much bigger loss than the adjusted figures, and the 2 trillion target shrinks once people see it. Hedgie🤗 https://www.newconstructs.com/anthropic-is-the-most-ridiculous-ipo-of-2026/

Source: Gary Marcus (X) | 2026-10-16