Search: “gary-marcus--x”

Serious question: Should I write a short book called 7 lies about AI that never die? AI hype has become a giant game of bait and switch. the bait: we are going to make an AI that can solve any problem

Since Hinton has actually replied let me clarify some things - LLMS don’t *always* regurgitate - LLMs don’t literally store full texts - but given the mechanisms that they use they do sometimes regurg

That @NIST CAISI announcement from last week about Google DeepMind, xAI and Microsoft signing new deals for pre-deployment testing is gone from their website, link no longer found, and I can't get any

Gary Marcus critiques the typical hype cycle pattern where emerging technologies experience inflated expectations followed by inevitable disappointment. The post likely illustrates this cycle using a

This post from AI researcher Gary Marcus likely discusses the enormous economic value or potential return on investment related to artificial intelligence developments, suggesting AI's worth or impact

what i have been saying for 6 years. maybe now you will believe it? 📁 Fei-Fei Li, former Google Chief Scientist, says the industry is dangerously fixated on language models. Most of the real economy i

Which has better odds? Generative AI earning $1.6 trillion/year or the roulette wheel landing on zero? One estimate of how much annual revenue AI needs to “make sense”: 1.6 trillion. That’s four times

32,000 views for my tweet; 2.2 million for the nonsense it critiques. so typical. lies and distortions beating debunking by a factor of roughly 100. Wanna get a million views? Make stuff up. Take a ti

a tweet to keep in mind when Sam testifies this coming week How can anybody take seriously your claim that “Working towards prosperity for everyone, empowering all people, and advancing science and te

FAR more scary than the misunderstood METR time horizon graph everyone here seems to be (wrongly) panicking about. The #AI circular funding bubble is already twice the size of the outstanding debt in

Happy to put money against superintelligence in 2029. Why Superintelligence is Alien Intelligence (A Brief Outline of the Future) We are no longer in the realm of normal technological progress. If the

hey @elonmusk, if you really care about making X a source of truth as you used to claim, take note: @GaryMarcus lies are optimized for engagement, truth is optimized for accuracy the algorithm doesnt

Many are valiantly fighting against the age of bullshit. Bullshit is winning, I'm sorry to report. 😠 32,000 views for my tweet; 2.2 million for the nonsense it critiques. so typical. lies and distorti

Oy. According to a new paper in The Lancet, the rate of made-up citations in biomedical papers has increased by more than 12x since 2023. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-673

PLEASE DO NOT PANIC about the Mythos/METR graph that everyone is panicking about. Progress is being made but people are totally overreacting. Here’s some context that is being left out from nearly eve

Remarkable numbers here. Goldman Sachs: 'The consensus of analysts is now for the mega-cap US hyperscalers to spend $755 billion on capex in 2026, representing growth of +83% vs. 2025. This capex is e

Terence Tao - 'AI tools are like taking a helicopter to drop you off at the site. You miss all the benefits of the journey itself. You just get right to the destination, which actually was only just a

Wow! Wonder how many people on this site hyped this paper – and how many of them will walk back their hype now that the paper has been retracted. A year-old nature paper that advocated the use of Chat

This post likely discusses a cognitive or computational principle where one should primarily focus on horizontal (broad, general, or foundational) aspects of a problem or system, then use inference or

but as noted here, not zero threat, either: The detailed investigation of a prior hantavirus human-human transmission event has evidence of airborne transmission of Andes strain: Patient 1 --> Patient

Gary Marcus discusses how symbolic tools and verification methods may be undervalued in AI development, suggesting that if harnesses and verification systems are performing the primary computational w

Gary Marcus publicly challenged Joseph Jacks with a $10,000 bet regarding a prediction Jacks made about 2030, requesting direct message contact to formalize the wager. The challenge was posted on X (f

Hot take on METR’s new graph that so many people are flipping about today. • Claude Code is a real advance; Mythos probably builds on some of what is learned there. But… • If you read the graph carefu

I believe we'll achieve ASI, but it will be both narrow and finite in capability. We already have ASI in Go, Chess, some video games. In those domains, infinite amounts of training data can be generat

Gary Marcus shares a humorous projection suggesting Anthropic could potentially reach $2 trillion in annual revenue if certain growth assumptions materialize. The post likely comments on AI industry r

🌷 If X had been around during the Dutch tulip craze🌷 1. Prices would have gone even higher before the crash 2. Tweets saying “there’s no bubble” would have gone viral. 3. Prices still would have crash

Is there a version of the bull case that spells out where the multitrillion dollar revenue will come from that doesn’t ultimately revolve around “trust me bro”? (And does it factor in the inevitable p

My take on the Dawkins/Claude/Claudia/Claudius kerfuffle in @thenerve_news - with many 🙏🏽to @GaryMarcus for reminding me how Dawkins wrote so powerfully about the weakness of arguments from personal i

Questions people will be writing about in the coming years: • Was it a Ponzi scheme? • Why didn’t more people worry about the circular financing? • Why were investors so blasé about the lack of profit

So many people misremember (or never read) what I said in in 2022 in “Deep learning is hitting a wall”, which was neither about revenue or AI’s potential upper limits. Rather, it was an argument that

Sorry, @peterwildeford, but this is wrong. Please don’t play along. The measurement “wall” you mention is hit ONLY if you don’t insist on reliability. If you demanded 95% accuracy on the task, the sys

A 2018 study by D.K. Roy and Soroush Vosoughi published in Science found that false information spreads faster on social media platforms than accurate information. The research demonstrates a quantifi

This post likely references the famous opening lyric from The Rolling Stones' 'Satisfaction' (1965) as a commentary on contemporary issues, possibly relating to AI confusion, information overload, or

This is confused, but popular. Popular because it tells a bunch of people what they want to hear. Confused for a couple reasons: first, Mythos probably isn’t a pure LLM. (Claude Code isn’t, and it pro

To anticipate that Anthropic will have 2T revenue in 2030 is a perfect example of the trillion pound baby fallacy. Just because a baby doubles in weight in its first four months doesn’t mean it will c

Gary Marcus discusses the 'too big to fail' concept in the context of AI systems, likely examining how large AI companies or models may pose systemic risks that make them difficult to regulate or shut

Wanna get a million views? Make stuff up. Take a tiny tiny bit of truth and distort it wildly. Consider the tweet below, 1.4M views. Take the chess thing. The paper that is linked doesn’t actually say

'50 percent of Americans told the Pew Research Center last year they were more concerned than excited about what’s to come from A.I. Only 10 percent said they were more excited. That is a yawning gap

“Combined free cash flow across Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle is projected to FALL more than -70%, to ~100 billion, by the end of …. AI capital expenditure is consuming nearly every do

Good summary of today, @katiemiller, but then again it is getting hard to track of the total number of ex-board members who have called Altman a liar 🤷‍♂️ Also hard to keep track how many OpenAI safet

Gary Marcus critiques the AI industry's financial model, noting that companies with high burn rates continue to see rising market valuations despite unprofitable operations. The post sarcastically que

Happy to see that The White House has finally realized that the Andreessen-Sacks zero regulation approach to AI was going to blow up in the their face. Also glad to see them finally consider the kind

Holy AI “fact checking” disaster We are in deep, deep trouble. A reader wrote in to me this week saying that they wouldn't read my Trump corruption story because ChatGPT 'fact-checked the piece' and i

I warned you early that covid-19 could get really serious. Hantavirus is not as easily transmitted; not likely to be the same level of threat. Nearly 40 cruise passengers exposed to a deadly virus may

i wish i could fast forward five years to see how badly this all turned out. it’s painful to watch. “Combined free cash flow across Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle is projected to FALL m

It’s honestly painful to root for Elon in the trial, given the kind of person he has become. Elon Musk’s DOGE “blatantly used” race, gender and other protected characteristics to execute the largest m