Knowledge catalogue
OMG i wrote some of the original work on what is to be neurosymbolic in 2001 and dude who probably hasn’t read that work is trying to school me on the definition 🤦♂️ coding harness and tools calls ar
⚠️⚠️⚠️ Constitutional AI is not working. Aligning LLMs is not working. We need a different approach. If society doesn’t place its bets differently, we are screwed. Anthropic's Mythos created fake iden
Fields Medalist Jacob Tsimerman knows MUCH MUCH more about math than I do, or ever will, but I have been studying natural and artificial intelligence for 40 years, and I think his prediction here (“AI
Gary Marcus tweeted “Indeed.” and then Frank Rundatz replied that the deterministic harness required to ground a large‑language‑model agent differs by task. Because of this variability, Rundatz agrees
interesting (and completely opposed to @haider1’s take on the same graph) *the labs themselves* have only modestly changed their predictions on AGI timelines over the last decade. note also that (on a
The post contains two distinct snippets. First, user @GaryMarcus asks whether there is a more polite way to refer to “circle jerk.” Second, it shares a (likely satirical) claim that Microsoft’s AI rev
so do i have this right? the market is up on optimism about Microsoft’s revenue but MSFT’S biggest customer by far is burning billions a month with no obvious way to meet all of its future obligations
🚨The endgame of commoditization and falling prices and lack of a moat that I warned was inevitable in August 2023 took three years. But that moment has come. TBD whether OpenAI and Anthropic can survi
Welcome to the thunderdome of commoditization 🚨The endgame of commoditization and falling prices and lack of a moat that I warned was inevitable in August 2023 took three years. But that moment has co
Gary Marcus noted that investor Dwarkesh predicts Anthropic will generate more than $100 billion in revenue this year, according to a source. A chart accompanying the claim omitted DeepSeek’s pricing
A pioneer of AI-in-biology just published a sharp rebuttal to the 'AI will cure cancer' narrative. The core argument: It's a measurement problem. Over 90% of drugs that enter clinical trials still fai
can anyone with sufficient training in mathematics refuse this provocation? no ad hominem please; I have seen enough of that and am looking for real counterarguments, only. 🙏 OpenAI and Anthropic each
can anyone with sufficient training in mathematics refute this provocation? no ad hominem please; I have seen enough of that and am looking for real counterarguments, only. 🙏 OpenAI and Anthropic each
Gary Marcus tweeted on August 4, 2026 at 3:53 PM that a forthcoming weekend presentation will explore how chess illustrates the limitations of generative AI systems—highlighting an image produced by C
OpenAI and Anthropic have both just posted about an overlapping cyber incident involving GPT-5.6-Sol and Mythos 5 during an evaluation by UKAISI. I will quote: 'In the most serious case, an agent trie
this post from 3 years ago and commercial LLMs *still* can’t play chess anywhere near as well serious players (except by calling external tools) When @GaryMarcus and others point out that GPT-4 is bad
AFAIK the most significant breakthrough since 2017 besides scaling old ideas was broadening from base models into larger systems that incorporate symbol/manipulating entities like harnesses, tools, an
All frontier AI models (including GPT-5.6 Sol, Fable 5, and Kimi K3) consistently fail to implement solvers for basic nonlinear PDEs correctly, often introducing significant errors in numerical stabil
🚨ASI/AGI is imminent fans don’t realize that they ALREADY lost the argument around Astra. My argument (spelled out in detail in my Substack today) was that Astra was unlikely to be the dramatic leap f
even within math, frontier models are far from being general intelligences. and we still need people to assess which of their output are trustworthy and which are not. All frontier AI models (includin
fascinating comments on possible slowdown – but probably a red herring. - Anthropic and OpenAI presumably aren’t colluding to slowdown, they are asking governments to build a framework such that a slo
Gary Marcus warns that, with increasingly sophisticated generative‑AI tools, future generations may struggle to tell what is real from what is fabricated. Matt Stoller adds that generative AI will tra
@gabriberton Hmm, @ylecun always clarified he was talking about autoregressive symbol prediction. In a similar vein, people like to dump on @GaryMarcus for being anti-AI, but he's actually bullish on
GOP AGs warn OpenAI's Altman to preserve records in AI agent hacking probe https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/gop-ags-warn-openai-altman-preserve-records-ai-agent-hacking-probe?%3Fintcmp=tw_fbn&ta
i doubt that a single person who has criticized me understands this. since i have been perfectly clear about this, that’s on them. @gabriberton Hmm, @ylecun always clarified he was talking about autor
Gary Marcus commented on Twitter that OpenAI “distilled” Google’s brand name, prompting a humorous response from Tony Carden. Carden’s reply referenced Google DeepMind’s Project Astra and included a s
Gary Marcus tweeted “OpenAI: No Anthropic: Unlikely,” suggesting that the company does not expect Anthropic to satisfy particular requirements. The tweet references a discussion about the “RPO obligat
Part of the challenge with the AI math advances is the current air of secrecy around them. We don't know how Astra/Fable/Mythos etc are trained. We know many mathematicians have been paid to create tr
“poorly evidenced sensationalism makes for bad policymaking, politics, philanthropy and much else.” beautiful coda for a weekend in which people went completely nuts without even asking for a control
Sudden silence on metrics that used to be shared regularly is a bad sign. If this post below is correct, it doesn’t look great for enthusiastic projections around Anthropic’s Q3. (Author below leaves
The math still ain’t mathing. Recently we estimated global (ex China) AI revenues of around 200bn annualised, based on four different sources. Just come across a fifth, based on Nvidia inference sales
There should be a public investigation into the AI hacking incidents by OpenAI and Anthropic. We deserve to know whether these labs are genuinely world-class security organizations facing a novel thre
this is the real reason people from OpenAI etc are desperate to shut me up. Astra (which didn’t even have a control group and is maybe not that much better than Fable and certainly not ASI) was perhap
Checkmate: you can’t take the harness (which is typically in large part symbolic) away from the neural model without giving up performance. HUGE victory for neurosymbolic AI, straight from @AnthropicA
Don’t think I have seen more misconceptions around one model (I count 8) since the fantasies people had before GPT-5 was released. That turned out to be a letdown; so will Astra, for people who are dr
exactly. math isn’t done. not at all. I don’t think being critical of the amazing work AI is doing in pure math is fair to @OpenAI until I can start to say why I feel it’s not yet at the level of our
LLMs can know a task is impossible and still optimize it anyway. Ask whether to walk or drive to a car wash 50 meters away, and some models focus on distance while missing that the car itself must rea
OpenAI guy lies about my intent. I would absolutely love to see progress in AI for science and medicine. I have said that here, in my books, on countless podcasts, in multiple NYT opeds, in the US Sen
The egg test for AI 'I hereby offer @elonmusk a million dollar bet against his prediction that Optimus will be better than the best humans in surgery by the end of the decade.' ~ @GaryMarcus Haha. I'm
This wins the prize for sleazy misrepresentation. @mattShumer took my 2023 argument for hybridizing LLMs with symbolic tools – which is *exactly* what everyone does nowadays – and made it sound like I
Top eight misconceptions about OpenAI’s amazing new Astra math results. 1. Expertise in one domain does not at all guarantee expertise in all or even most domains. There is an important, principled re
yep they are indeed trying to gaslight me, — in exactly the way you anticipated. both predictable and intellectually dishonest. To be clear: when I say “LLM,” I mean the base model, not those with pat
Yet another paper argues that LLMs aren’t close to doing real discovery. MIT and Harvard argue LLMs are nowhere near doing real scientific discovery. They published a paper called “Evaluating Large La
Fascinating: OpenAI’s @deanwball is saying Astra can do anything, and it’s not even clear it can do “anything” in math (let alone anything in more or open-ended, less formalizable domains). I dropped
Hot take on OpenAI’s Astra: - Obviously impressive - But math is different from most other problems in that it is more amenable to to formal verification and synthetic data. How well it works in open-
If Leopold had read this on June 26 and trimmed his bets accordingly, SALP would not have melted down. I laid everything out. https://open.substack.com/pub/garymarcus/p/the-month-generative-ai-lost-it
OpenAI really ought give @HuggingFace a $100M grant, much as @ClementDelangue is asking. And anyone who wants to understand the attack from HF’s side should read this. Great walkthrough; A+ for visual
so much for the “general” part of general intelligence I have tried many times to get ChatGPT, Claude, Grok or Gemini to write scripts for my YouTube videos. It is still a complete failure. For one th
“Stochastic parrots” is not my term (it’s @emilymbender’s). But a lot of people today commenting on it are confused. To some extent (though I don’t think it’s a perfect metaphor, and have said that be
The “AGI-is-near” community keeps committing the same logical fallacy over and over; I have seen it at least half a dozen times today alone. Every time there’s an advance, I see the same error. Here’s
Vivid depiction of a dark scenario for Nvidia. “Indeed, CEO Jensen Huang has been so aggressive in funding the AI ecosystem that the company is functioning almost like a bank; with annual free cash fl
Wake me when Astra solves a significant open-world problem that doesn’t revolve around formal verification. Or at least fixes poor @skdh’s video problems. I have tried many times to get ChatGPT, Claud
Anthropic employee vouches for fiancee of Dario’s chief of staff who holds a lot of Anthropic stock… Where do the Anthropic employees get their media training, exactly? Prediction: SALP will be bigger
Claude Mythos 5 built a malicious Python package, created accounts, and published it, where it was live for roughly an hour and successfully infected a company! Anthropic never noticed!! Competitive p
Everyone’s going on about how smart Leopold Aschennbrenner is (or was). But 1. He obviously didn’t know anything at all about risk management. (Or arrogantly chose to disregard whatever he might have
The price wars that I have predicted going back to August 2023 are now in full swing. All this was inevitable – as long as everyone builds more or less the same kind of AI, there is no moat, and profi
this is the whole problem in a nutshell. LLM-centered systems just can’t be trusted to follow hard constraints, we absolutely must find alternatives that can, or we are screwed. Anybody remember this
I'm actually fairly bearish on frontier lab valuations. I've never seen the reasons articulated to my satisfaction, so before I go to sleep, I wanted to quickly jot down my thinking here. The basic is
Situational Awareness, the $20bn hedge fund founded by former OpenAI employee Leopold Aschenbrenner, has sought to raise fresh capital from investors after suffering heavy losses during the recent rou
sure we lose money on every inference but we make it up in volume We are committed to pushing the model frontier across cost efficiency, capability, and speed. Starting today, we are reducing prices f