Hardware
Extreme Event Likelihoods with Guided Generative Models
Guided diffusion‑based climate emulators (e.g., NVIDIA cBottle) steer generative models toward low‑probability weather states and use an odds‑ratio diagnostic—requiring second‑order derivatives—to rew
Guided diffusion‑based climate emulators (e.g., NVIDIA cBottle) steer generative models toward low‑probability weather states and use an odds‑ratio diagnostic—requiring second‑order derivatives—to reweight samples and recover true event likelihoods. This approach has been shown to reduce standard error in tropical‑cyclone risk estimates compared with conventional Monte‑Carlo sampling. Implemented in NVIDIA Earth2Studio, the method is being extended to other extreme‑event domains while focusing on computational efficiency, density‑estimation stability, and broader attribution studies.
Source: NVIDIA Developer | 2026-07-13