Forecasters predict below-average hurricane season, advise against complacency

NOAA forecasts a 55% chance of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 - November 30) with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. The below-average forecast is driven by an expected El Niño pattern that will intensify during the season, which suppresses hurricane development despite warmer-than-normal Atlantic ocean temperatures and weaker trade winds. However, forecasters caution that only one major storm is needed to cause significant impacts, emphasizing against complacency despite the reduced overall activity prediction.

Source: Ars Technica | 2026-05-28